<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[The Industrialist Review: Shockwatch]]></title><description><![CDATA[Shockwatch is a recurring FutureMatters series on how war, sanctions, chokepoints, shipping disruptions, and geopolitical fragmentation reshape the physical economy. We are not trying to out-report foreign correspondents. We are trying to help busy operators understand what these shocks do to energy, freight, sourcing, insurance, and industrial decision-making.]]></description><link>https://theindustrialistreview.com/s/shockwatch-by-tocco</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uO0r!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3a2c3a8-e172-4e90-bd58-1975da7ebc23_600x600.png</url><title>The Industrialist Review: Shockwatch</title><link>https://theindustrialistreview.com/s/shockwatch-by-tocco</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Tue, 08 Sep 2026 19:58:12 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://theindustrialistreview.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Tocco]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[theindustrialistreview@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[theindustrialistreview@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Anh Ng. from Tocco]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Anh Ng. from Tocco]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[theindustrialistreview@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[theindustrialistreview@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Anh Ng. from Tocco]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Certainty is the New Trade Currency]]></title><description><![CDATA[Supply chain rerouting, extra industrial taxes, and how to deal with fickle trade partners]]></description><link>https://theindustrialistreview.com/p/new-trade-routes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theindustrialistreview.com/p/new-trade-routes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Anh Ng. from Tocco]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:27:28 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y5sq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03a8ca16-ecda-4cf5-94fa-26af18aaecc9_1840x1262.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We are only days into Quarter 2 of 2026, and this year has proven to be the year of <em>unprecedented</em> events, which will set up precedents for years to come.</p><p>In our own materials/manufacturing/industrial world, fundamental changes are also happening. The industrial formula used to be straightforward: minimise unit cost, stretch your supply chain across the globe, and assume that lanes stay open and energy is stable.</p><p> That math is now being challenged by a chain reaction of the 3 following events.</p><h2>1. Several chokepoints &#8594; supply chain rerouting </h2><p>The industrial world has been closely monitoring the closure of Hormuz since February 28. The first impact has been observed: oil prices surge, then <a href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/p/shockwatch-1-iran-hormuz-and-the">raw materials and feedstock prices surge</a>. </p><p>In the <a href="https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/03f6ac6f-5c1e-4374-a169-9070d4732d8c-KPB_206.pdf">study</a> &#8220;<em>The Cost of Closing the Strait of Hormuz: Energy Bottlenecks and Global Food Security</em>&#8221;, researchers from Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Germany) stated that &#8220;<em>A prolonged closure allows some market adjustment, but structural damage persists - and the timing during peak Northern hemisphere planting season compounds the food security risk</em>.&#8221;</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y5sq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03a8ca16-ecda-4cf5-94fa-26af18aaecc9_1840x1262.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y5sq!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03a8ca16-ecda-4cf5-94fa-26af18aaecc9_1840x1262.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y5sq!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03a8ca16-ecda-4cf5-94fa-26af18aaecc9_1840x1262.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y5sq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03a8ca16-ecda-4cf5-94fa-26af18aaecc9_1840x1262.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y5sq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03a8ca16-ecda-4cf5-94fa-26af18aaecc9_1840x1262.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y5sq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03a8ca16-ecda-4cf5-94fa-26af18aaecc9_1840x1262.png" width="1456" height="999" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/03a8ca16-ecda-4cf5-94fa-26af18aaecc9_1840x1262.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:999,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:246880,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/194164161?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03a8ca16-ecda-4cf5-94fa-26af18aaecc9_1840x1262.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y5sq!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03a8ca16-ecda-4cf5-94fa-26af18aaecc9_1840x1262.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y5sq!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03a8ca16-ecda-4cf5-94fa-26af18aaecc9_1840x1262.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y5sq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03a8ca16-ecda-4cf5-94fa-26af18aaecc9_1840x1262.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y5sq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03a8ca16-ecda-4cf5-94fa-26af18aaecc9_1840x1262.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Welfare changes under full Strait of Hormuz closure (Scenario 1, short-run). (Source: <a href="https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/03f6ac6f-5c1e-4374-a169-9070d4732d8c-KPB_206.pdf">Kiel Institute for the World Economy</a>)</figcaption></figure></div><p>Interestingly, researchers from Kiel stated that &#8220;<em>At every point in the value chain, some substitution is possible, which is precisely why the long-run scenario shows smaller effects.&#8221; </em>This is what we call the <a href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/p/hormuz-false-calm">Dangerous Calm of Hormuz</a> - where the structural cost of rerouting supply chains will settle in the next 2 to 6 months. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oDhD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bcf1fe-dec1-4d72-a420-c1c5ab6add4f_1382x708.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oDhD!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bcf1fe-dec1-4d72-a420-c1c5ab6add4f_1382x708.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oDhD!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bcf1fe-dec1-4d72-a420-c1c5ab6add4f_1382x708.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oDhD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bcf1fe-dec1-4d72-a420-c1c5ab6add4f_1382x708.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oDhD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bcf1fe-dec1-4d72-a420-c1c5ab6add4f_1382x708.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oDhD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bcf1fe-dec1-4d72-a420-c1c5ab6add4f_1382x708.png" width="1382" height="708" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/81bcf1fe-dec1-4d72-a420-c1c5ab6add4f_1382x708.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:708,&quot;width&quot;:1382,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:109169,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/194164161?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bcf1fe-dec1-4d72-a420-c1c5ab6add4f_1382x708.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oDhD!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bcf1fe-dec1-4d72-a420-c1c5ab6add4f_1382x708.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oDhD!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bcf1fe-dec1-4d72-a420-c1c5ab6add4f_1382x708.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oDhD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bcf1fe-dec1-4d72-a420-c1c5ab6add4f_1382x708.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oDhD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bcf1fe-dec1-4d72-a420-c1c5ab6add4f_1382x708.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Welfare impact comparison: full closure (short-run) vs prolonged closure (long-run). (Source: <a href="https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/03f6ac6f-5c1e-4374-a169-9070d4732d8c-KPB_206.pdf">Kiel Institute for the World Economy</a>) </figcaption></figure></div><p>Yet, rerouting supply chains is much more complex, given other complications <em>elsewhere</em>. The <strong>Bab-el-Mandeb Strait /</strong> <strong>Red Sea crisis </strong>due to Houthi attacks on commercial vessels has rerouted global logistics since late 2023. Despite a reduction in attacks in 2025, thanks to ceasefire arrangements, traffic through the Red Sea and Suez Canal remains below pre-crisis levels: transits in 2025 fell to around 35&#8211;40% of 2023 volumes, and <a href="https://isdo.ch/analysis-of-maritime-geopolitics-on-early-2026-the-red-sea-factor/">Suez Canal traffic in early 2026 remains around 60% lower</a>. The Cape of Good Hope is now the new route for Asia-Europe freight, which means +10 to 14 days, and +20-30% fuel consumption.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Y-W!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9963d245-4485-413b-a335-106e2e4c379e_1200x738.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Y-W!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9963d245-4485-413b-a335-106e2e4c379e_1200x738.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Y-W!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9963d245-4485-413b-a335-106e2e4c379e_1200x738.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Y-W!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9963d245-4485-413b-a335-106e2e4c379e_1200x738.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Y-W!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9963d245-4485-413b-a335-106e2e4c379e_1200x738.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Y-W!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9963d245-4485-413b-a335-106e2e4c379e_1200x738.jpeg" width="714" height="439.11" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9963d245-4485-413b-a335-106e2e4c379e_1200x738.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:738,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:714,&quot;bytes&quot;:108945,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/194164161?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9963d245-4485-413b-a335-106e2e4c379e_1200x738.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Y-W!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9963d245-4485-413b-a335-106e2e4c379e_1200x738.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Y-W!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9963d245-4485-413b-a335-106e2e4c379e_1200x738.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Y-W!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9963d245-4485-413b-a335-106e2e4c379e_1200x738.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Y-W!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9963d245-4485-413b-a335-106e2e4c379e_1200x738.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Two chokepoints. One became the new normal. Another is on the way to becoming the new normal. (Photo credit: <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/iran-signals-possible-expansion-of-maritime-pressure-to-bab-el-mandeb-strait-amid-hormuz-blockade-tensions-2891470-2026-04-04">India Today</a>)</figcaption></figure></div><p>On April 9, Time reported that Iran is <a href="https://time.com/article/2026/04/08/bab-el-mandeb-strait-iran-houthis-threat-trade-hormuz-war-ceasefire/">considering restrictions</a> on the <strong>Bab-el-Mandeb Strait </strong>again, amidst negotiations with the Trump administration. </p><h2>2. Tighten Regulations: Extra industrial taxes &#8594; thinner margins</h2><p>On April 7, 2026, the European Commission published the first official CBAM certificate price, <a href="https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/european-commission-publishes-first-cbam-certificate-price/">&#8364;75.36 per tonne of CO2</a> for Q1 2026. <a href="https://tocco.earth/article/cbam-2026?utm_source=article&amp;utm_medium=substack&amp;utm_campaign=futurematters">The CBAM definitive phase began on January 1, 2026</a>, covering iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen, and electricity, but certificate purchasing starts in February 2027.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XICC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F57cfa0f4-2310-4e72-af9e-f4b332b6fcdd_850x489.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XICC!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F57cfa0f4-2310-4e72-af9e-f4b332b6fcdd_850x489.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XICC!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F57cfa0f4-2310-4e72-af9e-f4b332b6fcdd_850x489.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XICC!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F57cfa0f4-2310-4e72-af9e-f4b332b6fcdd_850x489.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XICC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F57cfa0f4-2310-4e72-af9e-f4b332b6fcdd_850x489.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XICC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F57cfa0f4-2310-4e72-af9e-f4b332b6fcdd_850x489.png" width="850" height="489" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/57cfa0f4-2310-4e72-af9e-f4b332b6fcdd_850x489.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:489,&quot;width&quot;:850,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;How the EU CBAM will shape emissions costs - EUROMETAL&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="How the EU CBAM will shape emissions costs - EUROMETAL" title="How the EU CBAM will shape emissions costs - EUROMETAL" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XICC!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F57cfa0f4-2310-4e72-af9e-f4b332b6fcdd_850x489.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XICC!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F57cfa0f4-2310-4e72-af9e-f4b332b6fcdd_850x489.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XICC!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F57cfa0f4-2310-4e72-af9e-f4b332b6fcdd_850x489.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XICC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F57cfa0f4-2310-4e72-af9e-f4b332b6fcdd_850x489.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">CRU Group&#8217;s base case forecast for the average scope 1 emissions cost across European smelters out to 2031, as well as what would be the outlook if no CBAM factors were applied. (Source: <a href="https://eurometal.net/how-the-eu-cbam-will-shape-emissions-costs/">Eurometal</a>, 2021)</figcaption></figure></div><p>Who is winning and losing with CBAM?</p><p>From 2026, free allocations under the <a href="https://www.ey.com/en_gl/technical/tax-alerts/european-parliament-approves-eu-emission-trading-system-reform-a">EU ETS (Emission Trading System) are being phased out</a>. By 2031, European producers will pay for roughly 64% of their scope 1 emissions out of pocket (see the chart above). What CBAM does is ensure <em>non-EU exporters</em> face the same trajectory at the border. Without it, cheap, carbon-heavy imports would undercut producers already paying into the system. So European producers do get protection from foreign competition and <a href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/p/europe-true-reindustrialisation">a rising cost burden</a> at the same time. The playing field levels - but at a higher floor for everyone.</p><h2>3. Fickle Trade Partners vs Calm Ones &#8594; Certainty is the New Currency</h2><p>In trading, the most important thing is <strong>trust</strong>. </p><p>And it is not easy to trust a trade partner that unilaterally <a href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/p/sourcing-china-vietnam-charts">imposes &#8220;</a><em><a href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/p/sourcing-china-vietnam-charts">reciprocal</a></em><a href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/p/sourcing-china-vietnam-charts">&#8221; tariffs</a> with <a href="https://world.kbs.co.kr/service/news_view.htm?lang=e&amp;Seq_Code=199106">no notice</a>, and on another random Monday, <a href="https://theconversation.com/global">self-imposed an online feud</a> with Pope Leo XIV, head of the Catholic Church. <em>(The list could be much longer, but was kept short for the sake of noise reduction.)</em></p><p>When facing such a trade partner, one <em>naturally</em> will diversify and look for calmer, more predictable ones. From April 11 to April 14, Spain&#8217;s PM <strong>Pedro</strong> <strong>Sanchez</strong> paid an official visit to China, <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202604/1358852.shtml">the 4th time within 4 years</a>, as he sought to "narrow Spain&#8217;s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/spanish-premier-chinas-xi-pledge-closer-ties-amid-crumbling-international-order-2026-04-14/">trade deficit of nearly $50 billion</a> with Beijing. The exact measures are to be communicated.</p><p>On April 14, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) Central Committee and State President <strong>To Lam </strong>arrived in Beijing, beginning <a href="https://en.vietnamplus.vn/top-vietnamese-leader-arrives-in-beijing-beginning-state-visit-to-china-post341045.vnp">the state visit to China</a>. Key areas of discussion will include trade, investment, supply and production chains, education &amp; training, and science &amp; technology. </p><p>In an increasingly uncertain world, <strong>certainty</strong> and <strong>trust</strong> are the new currency of trade and collaboration. Not cost, not trade volume.</p><p>This is what our team believes in. </p><p>And we do our own effort of <strong>building</strong> <strong>trust</strong> in our global network of material and manufacturing. </p><h2>Our effort of trust building: Verified Buyers matching with Verified Suppliers </h2><p>Instead of bouncing between supplier sites, trade show floors, PDFs, and cold outreach - none of which truly build trust and certainty - <a href="https://tocco.earth/matterdrop?utm_source=article&amp;utm_medium=substack&amp;utm_campaign=futurematters">MatterDrop</a> is being built as a more curated, higher-signal experience: curated material themes, with available samples, brochures, and supplier profiles available in one place. </p><p><strong>Every week</strong>, &#8220;fresh&#8221; new sample (and/or brochure) <strong>Drops of the Week</strong> are made available to MatterDrop&#8217;s approved early users.</p><p>Access is opening gradually. The first wave is intentionally limited. <strong>Application open now. </strong>Check out to claim your free (verified) samples.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tocco.earth/matterdrop?utm_source=article&amp;utm_medium=substack&amp;utm_campaign=futurematters&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Get Your MatterDrop Pass&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tocco.earth/matterdrop?utm_source=article&amp;utm_medium=substack&amp;utm_campaign=futurematters"><span>Get Your MatterDrop Pass</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h2><strong>A Step Further &#8901; Private Executive Immersion into China&#8217;s Industrial Frontiers</strong></h2><p>If China is part of your strategic horizon, the natural next step is <strong>FutureMade China</strong> - a private, curated, executive immersion for those who want to see the terrain directly.</p><p>The current concept for the next cohort is a 5-day route through <strong>Beijing, Suzhou, Shanghai, Nantong </strong>and<strong> beyond</strong>, designed for <strong>founders, investors, and senior operators</strong> seeking direct access to China&#8217;s industrial frontier across advanced manufacturing, robotics, AI, biomanufacturing, industrial policy, and the systems shaping what comes next. <strong>Applications are now open for the June and October 2026 cohorts.</strong></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tocco.agency/expeditions&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Take a Sneak Peek here&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tocco.agency/expeditions"><span>Take a Sneak Peek here</span></a></p><p><em>FutureMade is not a tour. It is a private executive immersion into China&#8217;s industrial frontier. Each cohort is intentionally kept very small to preserve the quality of access, conversation, and fit.</em></p><div><hr></div><h2><strong>Even More Resources for You</strong></h2><ul><li><p>(Global &#127759;) &#8220;Sourcing Electronics from China and Vietnam in 2026&#8221;, a report by Tocco on <a href="https://tocco.earth/report/sourcing-electronics-china-vietnam-2026?utm_source=article&amp;utm_medium=substack&amp;utm_campaign=futurematters">consumer hardware, PCBs, and EV batteries</a> across both countries, with verification procedures, tariff analysis, and risk &amp; compliance checklists for procurement teams.</p></li><li><p>(Global &#127759;) &#8220;<a href="https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-new-twin-fossil-shock/">The New Twin Fossil Shock</a>&#8221;, a report by Ember on &#8220;how the energy crises of the 2020s speed up the electric age&#8221;. More developments to be observed still - we keep a close look at this in the next quarters.</p></li><li><p>(Global &#127759;) Top 10 Brands Embracing Monomaterials in 2026. Monomaterial design is moving to a compliance requirement; our team looks at <a href="https://tocco.earth/article/10-brands-monomaterials-2026?utm_source=article&amp;utm_medium=substack&amp;utm_campaign=futurematters">10 brands across industries</a> that have started to make the shift.</p></li><li><p>(US &#127482;&#127480;) John Deere to pay $99 million in a <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/john-deere-is-paying-farmers-99-million-for-allegedly-monopolizing-repair/">right-to-repair lawsuit</a>. The tractor maker is paying for its years as the central opponent of right-to-repair. Consumer advocates say it&#8217;s still not enough.</p></li><li><p>(China &#127464;&#127475;) China to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-10/china-moves-to-ban-sulfuric-acid-exports-as-iran-war-hits-supply">ban Sulfuric Acid exports</a> as War hits supply. Sulfuric acid is both produced by smelters and consumed in the mining industry</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=share&amp;action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share FutureMatters by Tocco&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=share&amp;action=share"><span>Share FutureMatters by Tocco</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Sourcing In This Economy?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Sourcing in China & Vietnam since Trump Term 2 and what to do about it]]></description><link>https://theindustrialistreview.com/p/sourcing-china-vietnam-charts</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theindustrialistreview.com/p/sourcing-china-vietnam-charts</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Leon Ge]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:01:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B-ig!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bc56261-c1a2-4a25-adb5-eb58b364bee0_1552x826.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Moon Landing this and Moon Landing that. </p><p>If it were 5 years ago, we collectively could have paid more attention to this. </p><p>But as the Gen Z told us to &#8220;<em>read the room</em>&#8221;, one simply has very little attention left for this great Moon endeavour, while a lot <em>else</em> is at stake on Earth.</p><p>In our own world of <em>materials</em>, <em>manufacturing</em> and <em>procurement</em>, the stakes include unstable tariffs, supply chain chokepoints (such as <a href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/p/hormuz-false-calm">the Hormuz shutdown</a>), changing regulations, loss of manufacturing competitive edge <a href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/p/europe-true-reindustrialisation">in Europe</a> or <a href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/p/american-industries">the U.S</a>., to name a few.</p><p>Among all of these angles, <em>procurement </em>and <em>sourcing </em>are definitely at the frontline. And this week, we want to focus on <strong>packaging</strong> <strong>sourcing</strong> in China and Vietnam.</p><p>Now, not everyone sourcing today is buying from China and Vietnam. But it would also be quite dishonest to pretend those two countries do not still sit at the centre of an <em>enormous</em> share of <strong>global sourcing</strong> <strong>decisions</strong>, directly or indirectly.  </p><p>Here are 3 important datapoints for you:</p><h2>Sourcing in China &amp; Vietnam since Trump Term 2</h2><h3>1. China dominates global sourcing 2020-2024</h3><p>North American and European buyers still source the overwhelming majority of their goods from a handful of countries - namely China, Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh. Among these, China is the backbone of global supply chains for physical goods. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B-ig!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bc56261-c1a2-4a25-adb5-eb58b364bee0_1552x826.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B-ig!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bc56261-c1a2-4a25-adb5-eb58b364bee0_1552x826.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B-ig!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bc56261-c1a2-4a25-adb5-eb58b364bee0_1552x826.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B-ig!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bc56261-c1a2-4a25-adb5-eb58b364bee0_1552x826.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B-ig!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bc56261-c1a2-4a25-adb5-eb58b364bee0_1552x826.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B-ig!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bc56261-c1a2-4a25-adb5-eb58b364bee0_1552x826.png" width="634" height="337.46565934065933" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7bc56261-c1a2-4a25-adb5-eb58b364bee0_1552x826.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:775,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:634,&quot;bytes&quot;:288097,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/193075687?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bc56261-c1a2-4a25-adb5-eb58b364bee0_1552x826.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B-ig!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bc56261-c1a2-4a25-adb5-eb58b364bee0_1552x826.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B-ig!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bc56261-c1a2-4a25-adb5-eb58b364bee0_1552x826.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B-ig!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bc56261-c1a2-4a25-adb5-eb58b364bee0_1552x826.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B-ig!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bc56261-c1a2-4a25-adb5-eb58b364bee0_1552x826.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: <a href="https://www.qima.com/newsroom/news/news-q1-2026-barometer">QIMA Jan 2026</a></figcaption></figure></div><h3>2. Tariffs changed the math in 2025 </h3><p>Then came the tariff escalation. What started under Trump Term 1 crept up gradually - but Trump Term 2 sent rates spiking to levels that made business-as-usual untenable. US tariffs on Chinese exports hit 47.5%. China retaliated at 31.9%. The cost of doing business through traditional channels changed dramatically and fast.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d1aq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6d251e-0165-40cd-84da-58eab99c0610_1220x1276.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d1aq!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6d251e-0165-40cd-84da-58eab99c0610_1220x1276.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d1aq!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6d251e-0165-40cd-84da-58eab99c0610_1220x1276.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d1aq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6d251e-0165-40cd-84da-58eab99c0610_1220x1276.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d1aq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6d251e-0165-40cd-84da-58eab99c0610_1220x1276.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d1aq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6d251e-0165-40cd-84da-58eab99c0610_1220x1276.png" width="538" height="562.6950819672131" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0c6d251e-0165-40cd-84da-58eab99c0610_1220x1276.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1276,&quot;width&quot;:1220,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:538,&quot;bytes&quot;:137223,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/193075687?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6d251e-0165-40cd-84da-58eab99c0610_1220x1276.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d1aq!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6d251e-0165-40cd-84da-58eab99c0610_1220x1276.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d1aq!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6d251e-0165-40cd-84da-58eab99c0610_1220x1276.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d1aq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6d251e-0165-40cd-84da-58eab99c0610_1220x1276.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!d1aq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c6d251e-0165-40cd-84da-58eab99c0610_1220x1276.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Trump Term 2&#8217;s Tariffs. Source <a href="https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2019/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-chart">PIIE</a></figcaption></figure></div><h3>3. Diversification from China that isn&#8217;t really diversification in 2025-2026</h3><p>Buyers responded by shifting volumes - primarily toward Vietnam. On paper, China's share fell. But look more closely: Vietnam's imports from China have nearly tripled since 2017, and a growing share of those imports is Chinese value-added being re-exported to the U.S (and to some extent, Europe). The supply chain moved, but the <em>dependency</em> didn't. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o594!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf617ad3-aa10-45b9-8ab4-c0ded9584988_724x530.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o594!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf617ad3-aa10-45b9-8ab4-c0ded9584988_724x530.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o594!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf617ad3-aa10-45b9-8ab4-c0ded9584988_724x530.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o594!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf617ad3-aa10-45b9-8ab4-c0ded9584988_724x530.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o594!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf617ad3-aa10-45b9-8ab4-c0ded9584988_724x530.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o594!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf617ad3-aa10-45b9-8ab4-c0ded9584988_724x530.png" width="616" height="450.939226519337" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cf617ad3-aa10-45b9-8ab4-c0ded9584988_724x530.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:530,&quot;width&quot;:724,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:616,&quot;bytes&quot;:12761,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/193075687?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf617ad3-aa10-45b9-8ab4-c0ded9584988_724x530.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o594!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf617ad3-aa10-45b9-8ab4-c0ded9584988_724x530.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o594!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf617ad3-aa10-45b9-8ab4-c0ded9584988_724x530.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o594!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf617ad3-aa10-45b9-8ab4-c0ded9584988_724x530.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o594!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf617ad3-aa10-45b9-8ab4-c0ded9584988_724x530.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/vietnam-trade-exports-china-us-imports-backdoor-global-supply-chain-5024951">Channelnewsasia</a></figcaption></figure></div><p>To some analysts, this sourcing story is fascinating from a purely intellectual point of view. But we, people on the ground, know the enormous hassles and challenges of navigating this. Our team has pulled together a quick <strong>Guide to Sourcing in China &amp; Vietnam 2026 - Packaging Edition</strong>, and we&#8217;d love to give it for free for the next 72 hours to those who actually need to navigate this environment.</p><h2>Download: Guide to Packaging Sourcing in China &amp; Vietnam 2026 </h2><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Zjs!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc552340c-1034-4a03-abb7-267a4b14873b_2478x1740.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Zjs!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc552340c-1034-4a03-abb7-267a4b14873b_2478x1740.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Zjs!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc552340c-1034-4a03-abb7-267a4b14873b_2478x1740.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Zjs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc552340c-1034-4a03-abb7-267a4b14873b_2478x1740.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Zjs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc552340c-1034-4a03-abb7-267a4b14873b_2478x1740.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Zjs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc552340c-1034-4a03-abb7-267a4b14873b_2478x1740.png" width="1456" height="1022" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c552340c-1034-4a03-abb7-267a4b14873b_2478x1740.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1022,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2731720,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/193075687?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc552340c-1034-4a03-abb7-267a4b14873b_2478x1740.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Zjs!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc552340c-1034-4a03-abb7-267a4b14873b_2478x1740.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Zjs!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc552340c-1034-4a03-abb7-267a4b14873b_2478x1740.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Zjs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc552340c-1034-4a03-abb7-267a4b14873b_2478x1740.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9Zjs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc552340c-1034-4a03-abb7-267a4b14873b_2478x1740.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The guide is designed for packaging procurement teams in particular, but the broader logic applies much more <em>widely</em>. You&#8217;ll see: </p><ul><li><p><strong>China</strong> remains the deepest and most diversified manufacturing base for packaging globally. This is where the <em>compounding</em> effect happens: automation, tooling speed, component density, and access to materials.</p></li><li><p><strong>Vietnam</strong>, by contrast, has become increasingly attractive in labour-intensive packaging categories and certain paper-based formats, helped by materially lower labour costs.</p></li></ul><p>But (there is always a &#8220;<em>but</em>&#8221;) - Vietnam is not a <em>frictionless</em> replacement for China. In most cases, it is better understood as part of a complicated China+1 reality -  where skills gap and the lack of a full supply chain will affect lead time and eat up margins. Download the Guide for full analysis.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tocco.earth/report/sourcing-china-vietnam-2026-guide?utm_source=article&amp;utm_medium=substack&amp;utm_campaign=futurematters&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Download Our Guide&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tocco.earth/report/sourcing-china-vietnam-2026-guide?utm_source=article&amp;utm_medium=substack&amp;utm_campaign=futurematters"><span>Download Our Guide</span></a></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em>Free for the next 72 hours. After that, the guide returns to its full-access status.</em></p><div><hr></div><h2>A Step Further &#8901; Private Executive Immersion into China&#8217;s Industrial Frontiers</h2><p>A report can give you a map. It cannot replace <em>being</em> in the room.</p><p>If this topic is close to your work, and if China is part of your strategic horizon, the natural next step is <strong>FutureMade China</strong> - a private, curated, executive immersion for those who want to see the terrain directly.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ruFZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b8e35c4-0f11-497d-a46e-e74ff514e87c_3870x1238.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ruFZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b8e35c4-0f11-497d-a46e-e74ff514e87c_3870x1238.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ruFZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b8e35c4-0f11-497d-a46e-e74ff514e87c_3870x1238.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ruFZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b8e35c4-0f11-497d-a46e-e74ff514e87c_3870x1238.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ruFZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b8e35c4-0f11-497d-a46e-e74ff514e87c_3870x1238.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ruFZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b8e35c4-0f11-497d-a46e-e74ff514e87c_3870x1238.png" width="1456" height="466" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7b8e35c4-0f11-497d-a46e-e74ff514e87c_3870x1238.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:466,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2411929,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/193075687?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b8e35c4-0f11-497d-a46e-e74ff514e87c_3870x1238.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ruFZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b8e35c4-0f11-497d-a46e-e74ff514e87c_3870x1238.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ruFZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b8e35c4-0f11-497d-a46e-e74ff514e87c_3870x1238.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ruFZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b8e35c4-0f11-497d-a46e-e74ff514e87c_3870x1238.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ruFZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b8e35c4-0f11-497d-a46e-e74ff514e87c_3870x1238.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The current concept for the next cohort is a 5-day route through <strong>Beijing, Suzhou, Shanghai, Nantong and beyond</strong>, designed for <strong>founders, investors, and senior operators</strong> seeking direct access to China&#8217;s industrial frontier across advanced manufacturing, robotics, AI, biomanufacturing, industrial policy, and the systems shaping what comes next.</p><p>For those making meaningful sourcing, manufacturing, investment, or market-entry decisions, the more valuable move is often to see the landscape first-hand, with context and access that are difficult to assemble alone. <strong>Applications are now open for the June and October 2026 cohorts.</strong> </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tocco.agency/expeditions&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Apply For Invitation&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tocco.agency/expeditions"><span>Apply For Invitation</span></a></p><p><em>FutureMade is not a tour. It is a private executive immersion into China&#8217;s industrial frontier. Each cohort is intentionally kept very small to preserve the quality of access, conversation, and fit.</em></p><div><hr></div><h2>Even More Resources for You</h2><ul><li><p>(Global &#127759;) It&#8217;s an understatement to say that Packaging Regulations are complicated. It is <em>nightmarish</em>. Download <a href="https://tocco.earth/report/global-packaging-compliance-handbook-2026?utm_source=article&amp;utm_medium=substack&amp;utm_campaign=futurematters">The Global Packaging Compliance Handbook for 2026</a> - we talk about packaging regulations across 5 regions and 120+ distinct legislative updates (took us a while to do this, as you can imagine).</p></li><li><p>(China &#127464;&#127475;) To understand the <strong>5 major industrial hubs</strong> of China and how this density drives the speed up and the cost down, download available on <a href="https://tocco.earth/toccographic/china-manufacturing-2026?utm_source=article&amp;utm_medium=substack&amp;utm_campaign=futurematters">China Manufacturing in 2026</a>, prepared by our team in China.</p></li><li><p>(Vietnam &#127483;&#127475;) Arguably one of the &#8220;hottest&#8221; places right now in terms of economic growth, our team in Vietnam created a <a href="https://tocco.earth/toccographic/a-2026-guide-to-vietnams-industrial-corridors?utm_source=article&amp;utm_medium=substack&amp;utm_campaign=futurematters">map of two manufacturing corridors in Vietnam</a> for those who are curious about what they can do here in the next 5 to 10 years.</p></li><li><p>(China &#127464;&#127475;) China&#8217;s New Five-Year Plan, according to Leon, Tocco&#8217;s Founder, is probably <a href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/p/china-five-year-plan">the most important industrial document of 2026</a>. Not reading it when you want to work with the ecosystems, is a <em>grave</em> mistake. You can read his analysis <a href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/p/china-five-year-plan">here</a>. </p></li><li><p>(Vietnam &#127483;&#127475; and Global &#127759;) For those who love Podcasts, Leon sat down with Tu Minh Tri, a Cambridge political scientist from Vietnam, to discuss the collapsing global order, Vietnam&#8217;s rise, and more. Available on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzMMjyqA6-o">Youtube</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/1xImPJ4KglHwO9FLQzQsAt?si=d037452ee1a342d3">Spotify</a> and <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/long-game-with-leon-ge/id1890412016">Apple Podcast</a>.</p></li><li><p>(China &#127464;&#127475; and Global &#127759;) Still a Podcast, Leon this time chatted with Sven Agten, a Belgian CEO who has spent 20 Years Inside China. They discussed China&#8217;s development, Europe&#8217;s recent economic decline, and the future of the global economy. Available on <a href="https://youtu.be/vMA4TrGn_V8">Youtube</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/748pEiwGi7XtBpgpAAoaOO">Spotify</a> and <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/long-game-with-leon-ge/id1890412016">Apple Podcast</a>.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=share&amp;action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share FutureMatters by Tocco&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=share&amp;action=share"><span>Share FutureMatters by Tocco</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Hormuz's False Calm]]></title><description><![CDATA[Panic comes first. Then complacency. Next thing we know is the economy starts to break.]]></description><link>https://theindustrialistreview.com/p/hormuz-false-calm</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theindustrialistreview.com/p/hormuz-false-calm</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Leon Ge]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 23 Mar 2026 14:33:21 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-JL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F864ac057-895c-47aa-b0bf-12886abe2db9_2752x1536.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The media seems to have moved on from Hormuz.</p><p>For the first 48 hours, you can find maps, missiles, oil price hikes, and <a href="https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/p/shockwatch-1-iran-hormuz-and-the">all matters of crisis</a>. And then, everything just became <em>white</em> <em>noise</em> in the background. People started talking as if the worst was behind them.</p><p>Spoiler alert: it isn&#8217;t. The global supply chain moves a hell of a lot slower than social media, and the Hormuz blockage is simply the first domino to fall. </p><p>People still think of &#8220;oil&#8221; when they hear Hormuz. That&#8217;s not wrong, but it doesn&#8217;t cover everything that entails. Crude oil is much more than just fuel. It is the <em>lifeblood</em> of the global economy. </p><p>Take a look at headlines beyond the Western hemisphere, and you&#8217;ll immediately see the ripples. I would describe the past ten days not as a crisis that has calmed down, but as a public that has moved on faster than a system can stabilise.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AVkh!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F008f4c4a-d126-4af7-b07a-ef3cb1a726f9_2752x1536.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AVkh!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F008f4c4a-d126-4af7-b07a-ef3cb1a726f9_2752x1536.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AVkh!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F008f4c4a-d126-4af7-b07a-ef3cb1a726f9_2752x1536.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AVkh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F008f4c4a-d126-4af7-b07a-ef3cb1a726f9_2752x1536.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AVkh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F008f4c4a-d126-4af7-b07a-ef3cb1a726f9_2752x1536.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AVkh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F008f4c4a-d126-4af7-b07a-ef3cb1a726f9_2752x1536.png" width="1456" height="813" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/008f4c4a-d126-4af7-b07a-ef3cb1a726f9_2752x1536.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:813,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:6210699,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/191857136?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F008f4c4a-d126-4af7-b07a-ef3cb1a726f9_2752x1536.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AVkh!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F008f4c4a-d126-4af7-b07a-ef3cb1a726f9_2752x1536.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AVkh!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F008f4c4a-d126-4af7-b07a-ef3cb1a726f9_2752x1536.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AVkh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F008f4c4a-d126-4af7-b07a-ef3cb1a726f9_2752x1536.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AVkh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F008f4c4a-d126-4af7-b07a-ef3cb1a726f9_2752x1536.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>As a matter of fact, it is still a war zone out there. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-completely-close-hormuz-if-trump-executes-threats-iranian-energy-2026-03-22">Trump has threatened</a> to strike Iranian power infrastructure if Hormuz is not reopened. Iran has threatened Gulf power and water infrastructure in response, while saying some shipping may pass only under its terms. The IEA is already discussing whether further oil stock releases may be needed after the record 400 million barrel release earlier this month.</p><p>That is still only the first wave. The second one is about almost everything that relies on crude oil and open trade routes.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-JL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F864ac057-895c-47aa-b0bf-12886abe2db9_2752x1536.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-JL!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F864ac057-895c-47aa-b0bf-12886abe2db9_2752x1536.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-JL!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F864ac057-895c-47aa-b0bf-12886abe2db9_2752x1536.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-JL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F864ac057-895c-47aa-b0bf-12886abe2db9_2752x1536.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-JL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F864ac057-895c-47aa-b0bf-12886abe2db9_2752x1536.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-JL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F864ac057-895c-47aa-b0bf-12886abe2db9_2752x1536.png" width="1456" height="813" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/864ac057-895c-47aa-b0bf-12886abe2db9_2752x1536.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:813,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:6205733,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/191857136?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F864ac057-895c-47aa-b0bf-12886abe2db9_2752x1536.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-JL!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F864ac057-895c-47aa-b0bf-12886abe2db9_2752x1536.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-JL!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F864ac057-895c-47aa-b0bf-12886abe2db9_2752x1536.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-JL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F864ac057-895c-47aa-b0bf-12886abe2db9_2752x1536.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!K-JL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F864ac057-895c-47aa-b0bf-12886abe2db9_2752x1536.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Take LNG. Reuters reports that Iranian attacks have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-attack-damage-wipes-out-17-qatars-lng-capacity-three-five-years-qatarenergy-2026-03-19/">wiped out 17% of Qatar&#8217;s LNG export capacity</a>, with repairs potentially taking three to five years. That&#8217;s enough to steer strategies off track. ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) in the UAE is also adjusting LNG output because of shipping disruption, while European policymakers have been forced back into gas-security mode. The phrase &#8220;temporary disruption&#8221; becomes harder to use with a straight face when the damage may last longer than some business plans. </p><p>Next, crude oil. It can be an abstract idea to many people, but diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel aren&#8217;t. In fact, many Asian nations have felt the effects of the war in their daily lives.</p><ul><li><p>In Cambodia, roughly a third of petrol stations closed at one point before emergency supplies reduced the closure rate.</p></li><li><p>Vietnam has accelerated its shift to E10 fuel rather than sticking to its timetable.</p></li><li><p>Thailand has moved to freeze some cooking-gas prices and promote subsidised biodiesel.</p></li><li><p>China has limited how much of the global fuel shock gets passed through domestically.</p></li></ul><p>Europe is now sending gasoline east, because Asia has cut down massively on their exports. The global market is actively redefining how refined oil products are traded, rather than simply repricing them. This means higher transport costs, worse distribution, and more pressure on consumers and manufacturers.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wIYz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0fb329a-c89a-4dfb-806a-bcea1e91c9a6_2752x1536.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wIYz!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0fb329a-c89a-4dfb-806a-bcea1e91c9a6_2752x1536.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wIYz!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0fb329a-c89a-4dfb-806a-bcea1e91c9a6_2752x1536.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wIYz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0fb329a-c89a-4dfb-806a-bcea1e91c9a6_2752x1536.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wIYz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0fb329a-c89a-4dfb-806a-bcea1e91c9a6_2752x1536.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wIYz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0fb329a-c89a-4dfb-806a-bcea1e91c9a6_2752x1536.png" width="1456" height="813" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f0fb329a-c89a-4dfb-806a-bcea1e91c9a6_2752x1536.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:813,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:7436722,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/191857136?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0fb329a-c89a-4dfb-806a-bcea1e91c9a6_2752x1536.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wIYz!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0fb329a-c89a-4dfb-806a-bcea1e91c9a6_2752x1536.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wIYz!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0fb329a-c89a-4dfb-806a-bcea1e91c9a6_2752x1536.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wIYz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0fb329a-c89a-4dfb-806a-bcea1e91c9a6_2752x1536.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wIYz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0fb329a-c89a-4dfb-806a-bcea1e91c9a6_2752x1536.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Then comes the silent killer, in the form of fertiliser.</p><p>Reuters reports that roughly one-third of global fertiliser trade passes through Hormuz. Middle Eastern urea prices have already risen about 40%, U.S. prices about 32%, and production has been halted or disrupted in multiple countries. There are no strategic fertiliser reserves equivalent to oil stockpiles. That means no Plan B here, contrary to popular assumptions. If the disruption persists, we will see it in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/how-does-iran-war-affect-fertiliser-supplies-prices-food-security-2026-03-17/">delayed planting, lower yields, and a fresh food-price shock</a> that will hit poorer importing countries first and hardest.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W3WK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e6f6699-d3b0-4b1b-8f2d-fbcdf295fdd7_2752x1536.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W3WK!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e6f6699-d3b0-4b1b-8f2d-fbcdf295fdd7_2752x1536.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W3WK!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e6f6699-d3b0-4b1b-8f2d-fbcdf295fdd7_2752x1536.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W3WK!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e6f6699-d3b0-4b1b-8f2d-fbcdf295fdd7_2752x1536.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W3WK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e6f6699-d3b0-4b1b-8f2d-fbcdf295fdd7_2752x1536.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W3WK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e6f6699-d3b0-4b1b-8f2d-fbcdf295fdd7_2752x1536.png" width="1456" height="813" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W3WK!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e6f6699-d3b0-4b1b-8f2d-fbcdf295fdd7_2752x1536.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W3WK!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e6f6699-d3b0-4b1b-8f2d-fbcdf295fdd7_2752x1536.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W3WK!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e6f6699-d3b0-4b1b-8f2d-fbcdf295fdd7_2752x1536.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W3WK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e6f6699-d3b0-4b1b-8f2d-fbcdf295fdd7_2752x1536.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>By the time the headlines feel old, the consequences have already made themselves known through fuel, fertiliser, food, and factories, slowly but surely. This is how modern shocks work - slow and hidden, yet they pack a powerful punch.</p><p>Sooner or later, the public will feel it in their grocery lists, their energy bill, their takeaway lunches, and will be none the wiser until it's too late.</p><p>Europe is already feeling the industrial version of this. Reuters reports that companies across Germany and the wider industrial Europe are freezing hiring, raising prices, delaying investment, and reconsidering production plans due to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/one-battle-after-another-iran-war-deals-new-blow-europes-industrial-heartland-2026-03-23">higher energy and raw material costs</a>. BASF, Henkel, Evonik, and other manufacturers are again being pushed into defense. Some Asian suppliers are invoking <em>force</em> <em>majeure</em>. This is not just bad news for commodity traders, but also for designers, buyers, product teams, CFOs, and founders who still believe geopolitical shocks remain safely <em>outside</em> the walls of their business unless they are in oil and gas. </p><p>Stay with me now:</p><ul><li><p>If Hormuz disruption lasts another 30 days, this remains mainly a fuel, freight, and insurance story.</p></li><li><p>If it lasts 60 days, it becomes a much broader fertiliser, chemicals, and industrial-input story.</p></li><li><p>If it lasts 90 days, it starts becoming a food, inflation, and political-stability story in the most vulnerable countries.</p></li></ul><p>I&#8217;m only making educated guesses, of course. The already-visible data: first shipping and energy, then fuel products, then farm inputs, then food systems, then politics.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wi4!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3af2abbf-e4ea-47cd-a05a-2fe8b885cb4e_2752x1536.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wi4!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3af2abbf-e4ea-47cd-a05a-2fe8b885cb4e_2752x1536.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wi4!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3af2abbf-e4ea-47cd-a05a-2fe8b885cb4e_2752x1536.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wi4!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3af2abbf-e4ea-47cd-a05a-2fe8b885cb4e_2752x1536.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wi4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3af2abbf-e4ea-47cd-a05a-2fe8b885cb4e_2752x1536.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wi4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3af2abbf-e4ea-47cd-a05a-2fe8b885cb4e_2752x1536.png" width="1456" height="813" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wi4!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3af2abbf-e4ea-47cd-a05a-2fe8b885cb4e_2752x1536.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wi4!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3af2abbf-e4ea-47cd-a05a-2fe8b885cb4e_2752x1536.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wi4!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3af2abbf-e4ea-47cd-a05a-2fe8b885cb4e_2752x1536.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5wi4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3af2abbf-e4ea-47cd-a05a-2fe8b885cb4e_2752x1536.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>This is why the most misleading signal in the world right now may be the <strong>surface</strong> <strong>calm</strong> that follows the storm. It&#8217;s much easier for people than systems to recover.</p><p>Which, in turn, creates a dangerous calm for all parties involved.</p><p>I&#8217;m not seeing things from a militaristic lens, but one that&#8217;s <em>industrial</em>. I grew up in China, spent years in Europe, and have lived close enough to manufacturing, supply chains, and cross-border systems to know that physical consequences usually arrive <em>later</em> than emotional ones. People will feel fear and fatigue long before they face reality.</p><p>That is what Shockwatch is for. We are not trying to out-report foreign correspondents, nor compete with the noise machine. We are only tracking how geopolitical shocks affect decision-making before firms have to <em>pay</em>.</p><p>Stay tuned for more.</p><p>Trust me, there will be, unfortunately.</p><p><em>Leon Ge<br>23 March 2026<br><br>* The name &#8220;Hormuz&#8221; is a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Hormuz">linguistic descendant</a> of <strong>Ahura Mazda</strong>, the Zoroastrian god of light and wisdom. It evolved over centuries from the Middle Persian forms Ohrmazd or Hormoz into the name we recognize today.</em><br></p><blockquote><p><em><strong>Why we publish this</strong></em></p><p><em>FutureMatters exists to help busy teams understand how the physical world is being redesigned by conflict, rules, machines, materials, trade, and industrial strategy.</em></p><p><em><strong>About the author: </strong>Leon Ge writes and builds at the intersection of AI, manufacturing, regulation, materials, and industrial strategy. He is the founder of Tocco.</em></p><p><em>Subscribe to get the next issue of <strong>Shockwatch</strong> and the weekly FutureMatters brief. You can also follow Leon on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/meetleon/">LinkedIn</a> for shorter notes and field observations.</em></p></blockquote><div><hr></div><h2>Private invitation: FutureMade China</h2><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xGLu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50161bc0-d772-425a-a7a1-d5c35b42977a_3870x1238.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xGLu!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50161bc0-d772-425a-a7a1-d5c35b42977a_3870x1238.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xGLu!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50161bc0-d772-425a-a7a1-d5c35b42977a_3870x1238.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xGLu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50161bc0-d772-425a-a7a1-d5c35b42977a_3870x1238.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xGLu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50161bc0-d772-425a-a7a1-d5c35b42977a_3870x1238.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xGLu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50161bc0-d772-425a-a7a1-d5c35b42977a_3870x1238.png" width="1456" height="466" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xGLu!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50161bc0-d772-425a-a7a1-d5c35b42977a_3870x1238.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xGLu!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50161bc0-d772-425a-a7a1-d5c35b42977a_3870x1238.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xGLu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50161bc0-d772-425a-a7a1-d5c35b42977a_3870x1238.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xGLu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50161bc0-d772-425a-a7a1-d5c35b42977a_3870x1238.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>A small group of founders, investors, and senior operators will join us in 2026 for a closed-door immersion into China&#8217;s industrial frontier - from advanced manufacturing and robotics to AI, biomanufacturing, and the ecosystems shaping the next decade. If you want to see the China that most executives never get access to, apply for an invitation <a href="https://tocco.agency/expeditions">here</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Iran, Hormuz, and The New Industrial Tax]]></title><description><![CDATA[What looks like geopolitics on television is already showing up in freight rates, insurance, fuel, lead times, and executive decision-making.]]></description><link>https://theindustrialistreview.com/p/shockwatch-1-iran-hormuz-and-the</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://theindustrialistreview.com/p/shockwatch-1-iran-hormuz-and-the</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Leon Ge]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 13 Mar 2026 13:12:21 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JURT!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00121fd6-a852-4299-ad5d-3ceb271a3523_2752x1536.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A week or two ago, this conflict was still mostly a geopolitical story.</p><p>It has since turned into something else entirely.</p><p>Clearly, it&#8217;s about <strong>energy</strong>. But it is also about shipping, about air freight, about insurance, about plastics, about timing, and, increasingly, about management. What looks like war on television is already entering the physical economy as a kind of tax - not a formal tax, of course, but a tax all the same: on movement, on certainty, on margin, and on time.</p><p>That is what this first issue of <strong>Shockwatch</strong> is about.</p><p>We are not going to predict where missiles land next, nor tell our readers who is morally right, nor compete with war correspondents. There are already enough people doing those things. Our take is much narrower and, we think, more useful for busy operators: when a conflict starts pushing on chokepoints, prices, routes, insurance, and industrial inputs, what does that actually mean for the people trying to source, design, price, ship, and plan? That is the question. </p><p>And as of <strong>Friday, 13 March 2026</strong>, it is no longer a theoretical one. (<a href="https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict?utm_source=chatgpt.com">IEA</a>)</p><h2>From war to throughput</h2><p>A useful mistake to avoid is to think of the Strait of Hormuz as a dramatic geography lesson, while it isn&#8217;t. It is a story on infrastructure. The kind of infrastructure that we have long taken for granted, because it usually just works.</p><p>According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, around <strong>20.9 million barrels</strong> of oil, per day, moved through Hormuz in the first half of 2025, equal to roughly <strong>20% of global petroleum liquids consumption</strong>. On top of that, about <strong>11.4 billion cubic feet per day</strong> of LNG transited the strait, which was more than <strong>20% of global LNG trade</strong>. The same analysis says <strong>89%</strong> of the crude oil and condensate moving through Hormuz went to Asian markets, with <strong>China, India, Japan, and South Korea</strong> accounting for <strong>74%</strong> of those flows. This is why the strait matters so much: not because it is famous, but because the physical economy is still routed through a very small number of critical passages. (<a href="https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict?utm_source=chatgpt.com">IEA</a>)</p><p>That kind of <strong>concentration</strong> is easy to forget in calmer periods. The world economy often gets described as a giant web, while in reality, it is much less web-like, being closer to a relay race with a surprisingly small number of critical handoff points. And when one of those handoff points becomes unreliable, the damage does not stay politely at the chokepoint. It spreads like wildfire.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IHZL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48e18213-69a0-472d-870a-30991d983841_928x1152.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IHZL!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48e18213-69a0-472d-870a-30991d983841_928x1152.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IHZL!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48e18213-69a0-472d-870a-30991d983841_928x1152.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IHZL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48e18213-69a0-472d-870a-30991d983841_928x1152.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IHZL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48e18213-69a0-472d-870a-30991d983841_928x1152.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IHZL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48e18213-69a0-472d-870a-30991d983841_928x1152.png" width="512" height="635.5862068965517" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/48e18213-69a0-472d-870a-30991d983841_928x1152.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1152,&quot;width&quot;:928,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:512,&quot;bytes&quot;:817202,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/190802760?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48e18213-69a0-472d-870a-30991d983841_928x1152.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IHZL!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48e18213-69a0-472d-870a-30991d983841_928x1152.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IHZL!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48e18213-69a0-472d-870a-30991d983841_928x1152.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IHZL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48e18213-69a0-472d-870a-30991d983841_928x1152.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IHZL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48e18213-69a0-472d-870a-30991d983841_928x1152.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h2>Already historic</h2><p>The International Energy Agency said on <strong>11 March 2026</strong> that its 32 member countries had agreed to make <strong>400 million barrels</strong> of oil from emergency reserves available to the market, describing the move as the largest collective stock release in the agency&#8217;s history. The IEA also said oil flows through Hormuz had been so badly disrupted that exports of crude and refined products were running at <strong>less than 10% of pre-conflict levels</strong>. (<a href="https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict?utm_source=chatgpt.com">IEA</a>)</p><p>A day later, Reuters reported that the IEA now sees the conflict as the <strong>largest oil supply disruption in the history of oil markets</strong>, with global oil supply in March expected to fall by <strong>8 million barrels per day</strong>. Reuters also reported that Brent, which had spiked earlier in the week to <strong>$119.50</strong>, was still hovering near <strong>$97</strong> on 12 March. (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/world-faces-largest-ever-oil-supply-disruption-middle-east-war-iea-says-2026-03-12/?utm_source=chatgpt.com">Reuters</a>)</p><p>Those are not normal numbers. While they do not mean the world is ending, they do mean this situation is no longer something that can be filed away mentally under &#8220;news to skim later&#8221;. A record reserve release is the kind of signal that tells you the market has already moved past anxiety into intervention. (<a href="https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict?utm_source=chatgpt.com">IEA</a>)</p><h2>The Re-pricing of Movement</h2><p>The easiest version of the story is: war in the Middle East, increasing oil prices.</p><p>This is true, no doubt. But it&#8217;s also grossly insufficient.</p><p>By diving deeper, you&#8217;ll see that once a strategic corridor becomes militarily risky, the cost of moving things through the system starts being repriced, all at once. That repricing shows itself through several channels:</p><ul><li><p>fuel</p></li><li><p>marine insurance</p></li><li><p>tanker and container availability</p></li><li><p>route reliability</p></li><li><p>air cargo spillover</p></li><li><p>inventory and working-capital stress</p></li></ul><p>Reuters reported today that air-freight rates have risen by as much as <strong>70%</strong> on some routes, driven by a mix of airspace closures, ocean shipping blockages, and much higher jet-fuel costs. In the same report, they also said <strong>more than 100 container ships</strong> have been stranded near Hormuz. It also pointed to disruptions on South Asia-Europe lanes and pressure on hub airports in the Gulf, such as Dubai and Doha, with a butterfly effect for cargo moving far beyond the Gulf itself. (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/air-freight-rates-soar-middle-east-conflict-blocks-trade-routes-2026-03-13/?utm_source=chatgpt.com">Reuters</a>)</p><p>This is the part many executives miss at first. They assume the impact is localized, which cannot be further from reality for impacts of this scale. If sea lanes are delayed or restricted, some cargo shifts to air. If airspace is disrupted, air capacity tightens and prices jump. If insurance and war-risk premiums rise, schedules become less trustworthy even before routes formally close. The result is that a geopolitical event very quickly snowballs into a systematic event.</p><p>And it&#8217;s in systematic events that costs start hiding in plain sight.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JURT!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00121fd6-a852-4299-ad5d-3ceb271a3523_2752x1536.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JURT!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00121fd6-a852-4299-ad5d-3ceb271a3523_2752x1536.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JURT!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00121fd6-a852-4299-ad5d-3ceb271a3523_2752x1536.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JURT!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00121fd6-a852-4299-ad5d-3ceb271a3523_2752x1536.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JURT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00121fd6-a852-4299-ad5d-3ceb271a3523_2752x1536.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JURT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00121fd6-a852-4299-ad5d-3ceb271a3523_2752x1536.png" width="1456" height="813" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/00121fd6-a852-4299-ad5d-3ceb271a3523_2752x1536.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:813,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:6286696,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/190802760?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00121fd6-a852-4299-ad5d-3ceb271a3523_2752x1536.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JURT!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00121fd6-a852-4299-ad5d-3ceb271a3523_2752x1536.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JURT!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00121fd6-a852-4299-ad5d-3ceb271a3523_2752x1536.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JURT!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00121fd6-a852-4299-ad5d-3ceb271a3523_2752x1536.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JURT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F00121fd6-a852-4299-ad5d-3ceb271a3523_2752x1536.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h2>Maritime Risk is Real</h2><p>Reuters reported on <strong>12 March</strong> that Iran said ships must coordinate with its navy when passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters also published a tracker the same day saying <strong>16 civilian ships</strong> had been attacked since the beginning of the conflict, citing data from the Institute for the Study of War and AEI&#8217;s Critical Threats Project. (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/ships-must-coordinate-with-irans-navy-pass-through-strait-hormuz-foreign-2026-03-12/?utm_source=chatgpt.com">Reuters</a>)</p><p>It&#8217;s one thing to worry about physical danger, but for logistics networks, perception holds as much water as reality. Once shipowners, insurers, freight forwarders, and cargo owners begin treating a route as unpredictable, the route is effectively damaged even before it is fully closed. Capacity becomes harder to secure. Surcharges appear. Alternatives become crowded. Lead times become softer. Contracts that looked acceptable under normal assumptions start looking thin.</p><p>This is why we think the best frame for what is happening is not &#8220;oil shock&#8221; alone. It is <strong>an</strong> <strong>industrial risk premium</strong>. The physical economy is being asked to pay more, and plan harder, for the same act of moving goods through the system. (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/ships-must-coordinate-with-irans-navy-pass-through-strait-hormuz-foreign-2026-03-12/?utm_source=chatgpt.com">Reuters</a>)</p><h2>Asia is first. Europe is next.</h2><p>The EIA data makes the first part very clear: Asia is more directly exposed because most crude and condensate moving through Hormuz heads there, and China is the largest LNG destination among countries supplied through the strait. (<a href="https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict?utm_source=chatgpt.com">IEA</a>)</p><p>That should not lead European teams to relax. Europe does not need to be the first-order buyer to feel the consequences. It only needs to live in the same market for:</p><ul><li><p>energy</p></li><li><p>freight</p></li><li><p>synthetic feedstocks</p></li><li><p>petrochemicals</p></li><li><p>plastics</p></li><li><p>insurance</p></li><li><p>industrial sentiment</p></li></ul><p>That is the point. In a fragmented but still connected world economy, disruptions do not need to touch you directly to become your problem. They can arrive through benchmark prices, rerouted cargo, constrained capacity, nervous suppliers, and cautious customers. The more energy-intensive, time-sensitive, or shipping-dependent your operations are, the more quickly the shock becomes visible. (<a href="https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict?utm_source=chatgpt.com">IEA</a>)</p><h2>An Uneven Tax</h2><p>This is where the story becomes more managerial than geopolitical.</p><p>The firms most exposed are not necessarily those with the highest headline energy bill, but very often the firms that are brittle in less obvious ways:</p><ul><li><p>firms with long or fragile lead times</p></li><li><p>firms over-reliant on one sourcing region</p></li><li><p>firms dependent on petrochemical-linked inputs</p></li><li><p>firms that still model landed cost using last quarter&#8217;s freight assumptions</p></li><li><p>firms with poor visibility into second-order supplier exposure</p></li></ul><p>Those second-order effects matter because the market rarely punishes everyone equally. It punishes the unprepared first. One company will absorb higher shipping or air costs and move on. Another will miss a delivery window, switch transport mode at the worst possible moment, and discover too late that the &#8220;cheapest&#8221; supplier on paper came with no resilience built in.</p><p><strong>This is why the new industrial tax is not just about crude prices.</strong> It is about the cost of uncertainty entering systems that were optimised for smoothness rather than stress. (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/air-freight-rates-soar-middle-east-conflict-blocks-trade-routes-2026-03-13/?utm_source=chatgpt.com">Reuters</a>)</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZJ-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8f1dd13-5e91-4d20-a1d0-fda50328da91_928x1152.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZJ-!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8f1dd13-5e91-4d20-a1d0-fda50328da91_928x1152.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZJ-!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8f1dd13-5e91-4d20-a1d0-fda50328da91_928x1152.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZJ-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8f1dd13-5e91-4d20-a1d0-fda50328da91_928x1152.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZJ-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8f1dd13-5e91-4d20-a1d0-fda50328da91_928x1152.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZJ-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8f1dd13-5e91-4d20-a1d0-fda50328da91_928x1152.png" width="928" height="1152" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c8f1dd13-5e91-4d20-a1d0-fda50328da91_928x1152.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1152,&quot;width&quot;:928,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:768633,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://futuremattersbytocco.substack.com/i/190802760?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8f1dd13-5e91-4d20-a1d0-fda50328da91_928x1152.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZJ-!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8f1dd13-5e91-4d20-a1d0-fda50328da91_928x1152.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZJ-!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8f1dd13-5e91-4d20-a1d0-fda50328da91_928x1152.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZJ-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8f1dd13-5e91-4d20-a1d0-fda50328da91_928x1152.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZJ-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8f1dd13-5e91-4d20-a1d0-fda50328da91_928x1152.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h2>Questions for Serious Operators</h2><p>The right response is not panic, but <strong>discipline</strong>.</p><p>A few questions are worth asking this week:</p><p><em>Where do we have direct or indirect exposure to Gulf-linked energy, LNG, petrochemicals, plastics, or shipping lanes?</em></p><p><em>Which suppliers become fragile if ocean transit remains disrupted for another two to six weeks?</em></p><p><em>Which landed-cost assumptions are now stale?</em></p><p><em>Where would we be forced into air freight, and what would that do to margin?</em></p><p><em>Which categories deserve dual-sourcing, tighter monitoring, or more inventory buffer than they had a month ago?</em></p><p>These are not <em>dramatic</em> questions. That is precisely why they matter. In times like this, the operational edge usually comes from asking the unglamorous questions faster than everyone else.</p><h2>What we are watching next</h2><p>There are four things we would watch from here.</p><p>First, whether commercial movement through Hormuz meaningfully normalises, or remains technically open but commercially impaired. The difference matters.</p><p>Second, whether air-freight rates continue climbing or start to stabilise. Reuters did note early signs that rates may be levelling as carriers add capacity and some Gulf operations resume. (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/air-freight-rates-soar-middle-east-conflict-blocks-trade-routes-2026-03-13/?utm_source=chatgpt.com">Reuters</a>)</p><p>Third, whether the shock spreads more visibly into chemicals, plastics, and manufacturing feedstocks, that would broaden the story from energy and logistics into direct material-cost pressure.</p><p>Fourth, whether executive behaviour changes. Because these moments tend to accelerate trends that were already underway: dual-sourcing, regionalisation, more appetite for redundancy, and a greater willingness to pay for visibility rather than simply chasing the lowest cost.</p><p>That may be the longer-term consequence of this episode. Not the end of globalisation, not the end of trade, not some lazy &#8220;deglobalisation&#8221; clich&#233;. Something more practical than that: a world in which resilience keeps getting repriced upwards, one shock at a time.</p><p>And that is why this should not be filed as &#8220;just another foreign-policy crisis&#8221;.</p><p>It is already a business story.</p><p>It is already a systems story.</p><p>And for more teams than they realise, it is already a cost story.</p><p><em>- By Leon Ge, on behalf of the Tocco team</em></p><p><em>Friday 13 March 2026</em></p><div><hr></div><h2>Private invitation: FutureMade China</h2><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wKl1!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3c43dfca-327d-4276-9e96-a3757a4d9d3c_3870x1238.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wKl1!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3c43dfca-327d-4276-9e96-a3757a4d9d3c_3870x1238.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wKl1!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3c43dfca-327d-4276-9e96-a3757a4d9d3c_3870x1238.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wKl1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3c43dfca-327d-4276-9e96-a3757a4d9d3c_3870x1238.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wKl1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3c43dfca-327d-4276-9e96-a3757a4d9d3c_3870x1238.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wKl1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3c43dfca-327d-4276-9e96-a3757a4d9d3c_3870x1238.png" width="1456" height="466" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wKl1!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3c43dfca-327d-4276-9e96-a3757a4d9d3c_3870x1238.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wKl1!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3c43dfca-327d-4276-9e96-a3757a4d9d3c_3870x1238.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wKl1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3c43dfca-327d-4276-9e96-a3757a4d9d3c_3870x1238.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wKl1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3c43dfca-327d-4276-9e96-a3757a4d9d3c_3870x1238.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>A small group of founders, investors, and senior operators will join us in 2026 for a closed-door immersion into China&#8217;s industrial frontier - from advanced manufacturing and robotics to AI, biomanufacturing, and the ecosystems shaping the next decade. If you want to see the China that most executives never get access to, apply for an invitation <a href="https://tocco.agency/expeditions">here</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>